Why are you people cooking over his analogy? Someone will onetap and someone will spend 10k fused leaps before getting a success (like me)
They are as useful as you are lucky
They’re not making an analogy that has any bearing on actual statistics. They’re using an extreme case that will never actually occur to justify their equally ridiculous argument. It’s purely illogical.
that is just blatantly false, there is a big chance of this happening, but it is not guaranteed, on the grand scheme of things it has the same chance of failing 1 million times in a row, that’s how percentages work.
the odds of you winning the lottery if you buy half the tickets is 50%, if you buy all the tickets it is 100%
your chances of getting a honning chance if you hone 20 times is still 5%, it will never be 100%, every instance is a new chance on its own, it is not connected to the previous one.
it is more likely that you hit a hone if you try 20 times than failing a million times on small scale.
but on a bigger scale they both have basically the same chance.
some people like 1 tapped their way to a piece, 2 or 3.
it would be super idiotic to say the guy who 1 tapped 3 pieces in a row “SHOULD” fail the next 57 hones, it would be super idiotic to think that’s how it works
apparently you are the one who neither understand analogies even when baby fed, or how statistics work.
using your logic everyone in game should have the same amount of successes and fails, which it doesnt, however in an infinitely large pool of player with infinitely large amount of hones, everyone of them have the same amount of success and fails, at one point everyone even successed 666 times in a row, then failed 420 times in a row then succeeded 69 times in a row
that’s just how statistics work
just because it is called 1:20 chance, doesnt mean you are guaranteed to work once every 20 times, could work 1 every single times for your entire gaming life in lost ark, but could also never work not even once till you quit the game
that’s how statistics, not your weird interpretation of how it works.
PLUS ALL OF THIS IS TO EXPLAIN A FREAKING ANALOGY THAT WASNT A 1:1 % RATE
analogies dont need to be 1:1
just because my uncle got scammed for 5 million by prince mbappé from nigeria, doesnt mean i cant tell you your uncle is gonna get scammed because the mail he got was from prince buhari for only 5k , so it’s not a 1:1 scale, different name and different amount, thus they are not the same
how dare you say it could take more than 20 tries to get a success chance, that’s illegal
“that is just blatantly false, there is a big chance of this happening, but it is not guaranteed”
Which is why I said “essentially guaranteed,” because the odds are so insanely high, the odds of it not happening is infinitesimally low…
“the odds of you winning the lottery if you buy half the tickets is 50%, if you buy all the tickets it is 100%. your chances of getting a honning chance if you hone 20 times is still 5%, it will never be 100%, every instance is a new chance on its own, it is not connected to the previous one.”
This is exactly what I mean by you using the most extreme edge case possible, to try and justify your stance.
YOU yourself brought up coin flips, which is a 50% chance each flip yes? But what you are failing to comprehend, is that each consecutive coin flip makes your odds go up, even though each flip technically has the same odds. If you actually did the math, the odds of rolling a 20-sided die, 100 times in a row, gives you a 99.4% likelihood of getting any number from 1 to 20. 1:20, aka, the same as a 5% chance.
Now go buy 100 lottery tickets and see if you win. The odds that you will are abysmally low and is essentially a guarantee you will not.
In summation, you can’t just use a single extreme edge case to prove your preposterous argument, because you are wrong and not basing it in logic, in any sense of the word. Statistics is about multiple cases, not a single one like you’re asserting for whatever reason. Just take the L.
not true, the chances of it happening or not happening is pretty much the same.
i mean someone 1 tapped 3 times in a row, that’s not a 5% chance according to how you think of chances,
“infinitesimally low” means it is a number as close to a 0 as you can.
what stance?
the stance of using an analogy that wasnt a 1:1 scale?
lmao
would you take a 50% coin flip to take all or double everything you own?
no
would you take a 5% chance of winning 10k dollars but losing 20 dollars?
maybe
how about a once in a life time offer for a 1% chance of winning 1 million dollars but losing 5 dollars?
well most definitely
the chances of you winning are getting low, but for some reason you dont see it “stupid” anymore because you gain more than you lose
so if somone says “betting your life savings on a 50% chance is a scam and you shouldnt do it” " somebody took the 1% 5 dollars and won the million dollar, but that doesnt make it less of a scam"
you cant say " no you idiot, that’s an even worse chance of winning, i have a 50% chance of doubling my networth"
because that would be idiotic because the person is talking that winning isnt guaranteed, be it 1% chance or 99% chance or 0.000001% chance
the idea of gambling itself is what i am discussing, not the chances of winning.
you are like the lottery winner who said " i bought 1 ticket and won, so no, they can be useful"
it doesnt make it less of a scam if you won that ticket on a 1:20 lottery or 1:20m lottery"
it is still a far fetched dream that may never happen.
for you it happened on 1st try, and there is a chance you fail every single one till you quit this game, or fail and have your actual % of winning being closer to 1%
if someone failing to get 1:20 20 times in a row is “infinitesimally low” then succeeding 3 times ina row should also be " infinitesimally low" and not be heard of since it’s just the exact opposite, but that’s not how statistics works.
your game doesnt say " oh he 1 tapped 3 times in a row, lets add the 57 chances to his upcoming tries" every single time you hone from now onward you still have the same 5% chance of succeeding
what are the chances of you 1 taping at the same time 7 other people from 2 different continents 1 tapping while 3 bots are getting banned and an rmt getting negative gold and someone writing a post on this forum complaining?
sounds ridiculously low, but that’s what happen in the world around you, just because i added random gibberish doesnt make your chance of 5% in that particular moment lower, it is still 5% but there is a bigger scenario % that you have a lower % in
same way for failing a thousand times in a row, it is just a bigger scenario % but your smaller % of 5% still applies every time you hone.
you do realize that the whole argument is just you not comprehending or being able to understand the concept of analogies? not the statistics or whatever
you just cant comprehend that someone can make a bigger or smaller analogy about what you are talking about.
saying a finger to a hand is like an eyelash to an eyelid isnt false because the finger and hand are clearly bigger.
saying blackjack, slots, lottery are all scams and you have a small chance of winning and gambling is bad isnt illogical because everyone of them has a different % of winning, only a robot would come up with such conclusion,
someone saying " the powerball is a far fetched dream, so you shouldnt participate in the state lottery"
the other person replying “bUt tHe pOwErBaLl hAs a mUcH LoWeR % Of wInNiNg, HoW CaN YoU MaKe sUcH An iDiOtIc aNaLoGy, ThEy aRe nOt eQuAl”
would be laughable at the least
just ignore everything
this is pretty much it
i dont know how to make it any more simplistic than this for you to understand how human analogies work
Lol, are you a real life gambler who’s coping about all of the lottery tickets they buy? I’m legit baffled by your logic.
You’re truly trying to make the argument that you have a better chance of winning the lottery, than you do to take a 5% honing chance…
Well how about this? I’ll do Valtan each week, and you’ll buy a lottery ticket every week. Let’s see who gets a successful hone or who wins the lottery first? How about that bud?
Good luck getting the same odds as I’ll have with a 5% honing chance. For you to have the same odds with the Powerball, you’re gonna have to buy 329,874,930 tickets, out of the 6,597,498,600 possible Powerball permutations.
no, which is why i said you dont understand analogies or sarcasm.
Stop coping, you are 100% trying to make an argument with your lottery nonsense. I proved you wrong, and your fragile ego won’t allow you to be wrong, so you keep doubling down, or just saying it was “sarcasm.” Yikes man, just yikes.
FYI, it’s not a valid analogy if you’re trying to compare a statistics-based situation to another statistics-based situation. They literally have to be 1:1 in comparison, otherwise it has no merit, like comparing a 5% honing chance to a 20-sided die roll, like I did.
i am face palming so hard
because someone saying this is 100% not sarcastic because that’s how people actually talk
Lol, you were being sarcastic because you still legitimately think you’re right, which you’ve been proven to not be. So why do you keep talking?
like to me it sounds like you’re the one trying hard not to admit to his faults and spewing trolling nonsense
No, I’ve been very thorough in my intentions. You seem to be the one who can’t move on here.
yeah sure, that’s enough time for you tbh, not even a productive trolling session from you, i prefer higher quality trolling tbh.
have a nice day man
I wasn’t trolling at all, I was just providing clear, concise statistical evidence to you to show how illogical your argument was.
not really, but whatever man, have a nice day
Yes really, adieu, mon ami.
Everyone in this thread is too serious, and most of the hilarity came from the “victim”'s reaction in discord tbh (SS was taken the day it happened btw, is why it says “today” when this happened a few days ago)
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Jokes on you, at the rate Vykas is coming, that 1000 gold is worth more. He’ll have more than enough fused leapstones to use by the time Brelshaza comes in 2024.