Curious about honing rates

I’ve been perpetually stuck in Tier 2 (even did all the Tier 2 islands) for weeks and the rates seem to be off. I bought all the mats I could from the Bloodstone and Event vendors and used Moon’s Breaths and an Event book to get 70% on my tier 2 weapon at +14. That’s logically 7 out of 10 times I would succeed. It failed and I wasted so many mats that’ll take me days or even up to a week to acquire for another chance. I play board games regularly and something seems weird. If I grab some dice and roll them I would have a better chance at getting a 1-7 than 8-10. Something just seems off about this game’s RNG. Is this just my imagination? I’d rather this game have multiple variables (like using more than one die) to be tallied instead of a random number generator spitting out a number. Just a thought.

Took some time to gather materials and made a second attempt just now 3 days later fully buffed to 74% and failed again. Are these rates even accurate? From my experience at 74% you don’t have 74 attempts to succeed out of 100. Something’s weird here.