Gear honing probability fishy

Hi guys,

After feeling very unlucky I started tracking some of my outcomes. For example I had honed my gear at the 90% success rate 36 times and failed 9 times.
I also had triple consecutive fails on 80% success rate (failed at 80,88,96) a few times.
I feel like this is just strange that all these statistical anomalies are happening to me. I’m going to track all my gear honing from now on. My gut tells me there is something unethical going on in the background.

How was your experience? much better than me or abnormally unlucky as well?

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please provide proof because u get like 7% extra chance on top if u fail so it is quite impossible to fail 1 part that much

I mean I’ve definitely Failed a lot of 90%'s but at the same time when I took my gear from +13 to +15 I only failed 3 times total on all 6 pieces

i wish I had your luck

I wouldn’t say im lucky. while i didn’t fail my weapon at all between +13 and +15 I failed it 4 times in a row at +12. sometimes you’re lucky sometimes you aren’t.

welcome to rng.

I’m fairly certain that the advertised percentages aren’t correct…

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95% is still not 100%.

It has a chance to fail and so it can happen.

I lucked at less than 50% and failed at 90%.

RNG is RNG. As long as it isn’t 100% it CAN fail.

I’m aware of that, but when you have 60% chance the expected average outcome should be success, not multiple failiures in a row… If that happened just on my main I’d chalk it up to bad rng, but when it happens across 5 alts too I become pretty sceptical that they’re showing the correct success chance.

It’s not fishy at all, theoretically if you have even 1% of failing you could fail every time you try…

no matter the numbers, you still have 50% chance to win or fail :smiley:

Theoretically it’s possible for everyone to play the same numbers at the lottery and for them to all win the jackpot, but if it happens it’s gonna be fishy as hell, because the chance is insanely low. Same thing here, if it happens a few times it’s RNG if it constantly happens, it starts to smell fishy…

When I started this thread I was hoping that people would come with some numbers in their experience instead just spamming “rng is rng, it can happen lulz”

I’ll posted the numbers I have since I started tracking. I didn’t crunch the numbers yet but certainly looks kinda rigged.



i reached t3 1302 with exactly 32 fails. Guess i was one of the lucky ones. :sweat_smile:
Guild mate did even better, he only had 27 fails at 1302.

is not only You i get really frustrated at honing t1 12->13,5 those numbers showed are not even close to reallity
then i started using breaths and got 2 fails on 10 atempts on 70-80% chance so verry acurate results

imo if not using braths and books the numbers showed on screen are ~2x higher than real results (in range 12-15), with breaths the numbers seems acurate,
it may be also reason why some ppls get to 1300 with < 30 fails (using breaths) and some have > 150 fails (trying to force push without breaths)

Only one fail by 90% from T2 +7 to +8 by 6 items

Actually the most valuable data in this sheet is the 90% sucess category just because of the number of tries, allthough you have been unlucky at this percentage i still wouldn’t say thats already proof of it beeing rigged. I would say a minimum of 100 tries would be needed to make an assumption. But lets say those numbers are correct, keep it up! Allthough we can’t comprehend if those numbers aren’t biased, you are the first one to deliver any numbers outside of “I FAILED 3 CONSECUTIVE 90% ROLLS, THATS JUST NOT POSSIBLE!! SUE THIS GAME AND ANYONE RELATED TO IT!” :sweat_smile: :see_no_evil:

I would also like to know how the game determines a fail or a win. But guess we won’t get to know this…

from reading this post and the replies , i can tell that people do like to pat themselves on the back and are going by the mentality if it didn’t happen to me it must not be true , me and a few friends have the same issue where at 80/90% we failed like 2-3 times in a row , which statistically is VERY low to happen to all of us .

did manage 3 30% in a row on my main, then go on reroll, with 4 piece with base 80%, i had 3 fail. (2 on same item, and one on another)

To have a good idea, it is hundreds of try to see if it is close of the real rate or no. and your data shows it… getting from far lower to far higher chances with no logic.