[Investigation] Mokoko Event "RNG" (and RNG in general)

This event has been running for awhile now, and there’s enough to show that there’s clearly something fishy going on. The same names pop up on a regular basis for winners on the lucky seeds. I know people who have won 8-9 times, while others still sit at 0 or 1 despite everyone participating the same amount. It also helps that you can see who wins every 2 hours, and it writes it out to the chat logs, so it becomes easier to track other common names as well.

As a software engineer who’s worked on games, I recognize when something seems off. But to be fair, you don’t even need to be a dev, there’s a LOT of people who seem to have noticed something is off. There are endless threads here with people complaining about something related to the RNG in the game, and there’s likely something of merit to these claims. This event just basically airs the dirty laundry on the randomization and helps to prove what people have been saying for a long time now. Due to how often the same people seem to trigger the lucky seed wins, it’s pretty clear that something account or character related is used for determining chances to win. It’s obviously not a purely equal random chance. Now I can’t see the code, so I couldn’t tell what data specifically is used or how, but it does seem like there’s some relation there.

Let’s break the numbers down a bit in this event. At any given time, the event has somewhere between 5-12 channels (on our server). Each channel seems to have anywhere between 10-20 people in it (you can see all the people on the map), and roughly 20% of the players involved in any particular event seem to trigger lucky mokoko (wins are announced globally and in the chat logs). Given the fact that a large number of the same people win repeatedly, often days in a row, and others never do, there’s clearly something very fishy going on here. If it were only a couple people having that happen, then you could claim coincidence or luck, but when it happens with a larger number of the same people, that’s no longer coincidence. Simply put, that’s not how randomization works.

This smells an awful lot like intentionally fixing a system, very similar to how a handful of WoW devs made changes in the game to benefit their own personal characters and got away with it for years before eventually getting caught (yes, this did happen, and yes these sorts of things DO happen in online games). Yes, those changes benefited others as well, but their goal was still achieved nonetheless.

As the North America publisher, Amazon has a responsibility to push for some oversight and review here. Not just for this event, but the randomization in general in the game itself (which is likely the root cause of what’s going on in this event). Random number generation is dead simple in pretty much every programming language on the planet. In many cases, languages provide easy access to APIs that can actually get close to true randomness using entropy from various real-world machine events (this is used in cryptography all the time). In fact, Lost Ark’s client is written in the Unreal 3, which uses C++. That more than likely means the server is also likely written in C++ (as most game servers are), and C++ certainly has access to these APIs.

There needs to be an independent review of the randomization code, including its use in this event. Look for fishy things like tying individual randomizers to characters/account, using character names/ids/hashes for seed information, etc… In fact, look for anything that alters the input for the randomization itself, which should be a huge red flag. In reality nothing should change the RNG generation, and modifiers should be done only to the value you get out of it. This also means there should be some review over any post-modifications as well, ensuring only things that make sense have any bearing on it (such as honing chance increase items), and unrelated things aren’t used (such as character id, name, hashes, etc…).

Finally, it’s also probably not a bad idea to push for auditing any accounts owned by dev team members to ensure there’s not suspicious activity going on. Again, devs across numerous games have been caught in the past making changes to games to benefit themselves. I don’t feel like members of the Lost Ark dev team are any less capable of doing something similar.

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Although I am all for oversight, this conspiracy theory defies any credibility whatsoever, and one person’s observation from one server is not nearly enough data to even suggest that this is going on. A truly ridiculous position, rife with logical fallacies. If you get a meaningful sample of data and can identify specific situations where a dev team member got extra stuff relative to the general population, come back and share.

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I agree. The tinfoil hat is strong with this one.

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I wouldn’t affirm that RNG is being seeded by account id, name, hash or whatever, but I should admit that in my server I see the same 3/4 people winning almost everyday, that’s demotivating. I’m more in favor of unintentional bad programming practices around RNG

I’ve got lucky 3 times and I’m obviously not working at Smilegate (as I wouldn’t care about this forum in such case) nor am I streaming, tho I have no compelling argument to back up that third claim (nor first, as I didn’t record it).
Sometimes it just happens. Some people one tap their 1% gear 3 times in a row, while others pity multiple times. It is unlikely, but not impossible to happen.

dont you automatically get your name showing up if you just happen to get a Lucky mokoko ? even if its like 10 gold

I won 6 times… clearly im better at picking mokokos than you.

But in reality, i feel like some chars got a luck buff… the char i use for the event has always been lucky. It gets 4-5 boss rush a week every single week where my other chars average 1-2. Its also was lucky with honing… however its only 1370 cuz i dont enjoy glavier… maybe one day ill push it and test its luck with relic quality cuz my luck has been horrible on other chars. I spent 235k on weapon before it finally went from 47-67.

I really dont get how all these people have 90+ the chances are so small and it costs so much.

No, if your name pops up with treasure chest icon its 5k, if its a different icon its alot more than 5k but it varies.

Your name doesnt pop up with the 2x 5gold

LOL! You can claim conspiracy all you want, but it just shows you know nothing about game, or software development in general. :wink:

I mean, the only part that could be partially right is that it could be more carelessness / cutting corners than intentional malice. Cutting corners is incredibly common in the games industry, or I should say in the software industry. For example, in games like this, it’s common to try to use a wrapping counter with a modulo than actually generate a random number since it’s cheaper cpu-wise. The theory is that with enough people hitting that counter, it should be somewhat random. But in practice it’s a flawed, yet still common implementation that’s behooven to blocks of successes and failures.

It’s not to dismiss that sometimes there are devs (not to be confused with the whole team) that do sneak things into builds to help them personally. This does really happen, and you’re a fool if you think it doesn’t. The example in WoW was just one of many out there, but in that particular case the devs responsible made changes to make the class they favored significantly more powerful than it was supposed to be. Eventually it was discovered after something like nearly a year of players complaining about it, I assume those responsible were fired, and the changes were fixed. Also keep in mind that while they did it to benefit themselves, it also benefited anyone else playing that particular class.

I invite other people to share data they see on their own servers, it would be nice to see a larger picture. But to expect any single player can see the data across all servers, that’s a fallacy in its own right. It assumes that they have access to data that no players do. However, if they’re gathering telemetry, I would love to see that published out!

I have seen people from 0 to 100 or sth low like 22 33 to 90+, in one try (so the chance shown is high) unlike when say, try going to 90+ from 50, then the chance is low.

While it’s certainly not the same thing as Lost Ark, Asheron’s Call had something that was along the same lines. Just wanted to add another example for another game of RNG not really being 100% RNG.

idk about them having some special group of ppl who win consecutively or anything

but i am just here to say that I’m jealous u get

in NAEast Adrinne, its usually 1 channel mostly and highest i’ve seen is probably 3 channels (during the times i play ofc, including this event isle and field bosses chaos gates etc.)

sadge that server merge isn’t coming to NAEast servers

Well I got lucky mokoko 8 times and my boyfriend only 1 time (he hates me for that :joy:). It’s just good luck I think!

But I do see few names that appear all the time like almost everyday. And one of the guy has the word bot in his name xD

For channels, it changes nothing. The more there is people the more there are channels! That’s all.

Right, in some cases it’s trying to be clever, for some it’s intentional, and others it’s incompetence. It’s often hard to distinguish the difference between them.

My pov is there are lucky spots and people who often appear repeat the same spot everyday.

Today someone took my spot and the seed i was aiming for which was the lucky one. I got 4 already around the same spot this time another player won the seed so F for me

same i have a lucky spot too, i have 5 lucky seeds but not the super lucky ones yet.

People going crazy over someone else winning 4k gold is hilarious. You can literally make 50k weekly just by raiding on your chars and you go around complaining about something as insignificant as mokoko event reward.

You want to know real reason you keep seeing same people winning? I won the event twice 2 days in a row after spending 125k on my alts arcanas legendary books. I dropped down to having 2k in my bag and I won mokoko event 2 days in a row while I had barely any gold in my bag. One week later I went back to little under 100k and I never won the event since. It’s probably rewarding broke people or noobs the most.

Also, on RU I had 200g in my bag and got 15k from the event.

Nope

There’s some element of skill to the event, in that you can do it at less popular times and go to a less populated channel and find areas that are dense in seed spawns (the spawn points appear to be fixed, but whether a seed spawns is random). But it’s definitely hard to hit a jackpot even though I’ve done so a few times now.

But yeah I do see a lot of bots winning 5k. Not sure what they’re doing if anything.

Coincidence I guess. I have 100k, still got the lucky seed yesterday. Were the same with my previous seeds (I have won 6 times in total)