Today after 2 weeks of grind i decided to finally try to upgrade my il a little.

I’m not a no life who play 8h daily, i usually do 2-3h max, sometimes I’m skipping a day or two for rest bonus so I’m only at 1360 IL at my main so far.

So i gathered couple thousands of stones, like 10 books for +10% success rate for weapons and 20 of them for armors from events and i though that with ~35% success rate that shows up when i use book and with my current mats I’m able to do 1370 easy.

I was in huuuuuge mistake. I upgraded 3 items.

35% success rate and my gloves failed 14 times.

Can you please explain it to me? It’s mathematicaly not possible unless rates are actually lower than it shows us. I also wasted all 10 books to upgrade my weapon once at same success rate.

So - more on less, i spend 2 weeks to get ~3 item levels when I did over 35 upgrade attempts with 35% success rate. How it’s possible?

I want to know what are the real success rate. I thought that maybe I’m alone with it but then i noticed hundreds of ppl arguing about this so I’m probably not “just unlucky”.

At this point as all my friends already quit the game I’m starting to thinking about this too because with this rate it’s going to take me like 4 more weeks to see how 1370il content look like, and i will have to do this alone because thanks to you AGS, half of my friends quit at the beginning when they was not able to play at server that we choose because of 15k queues and no possibly to transfer character and rest quit because of not real game content till 1370il.

I can get it. But i can’t get how i can fail 35% success rate 14 times. For me it’s look like a fake success rate rn just to keep players. I would rather see it like 10% but real 10% than 35% as fake and 10% real.

So…do you not understand how percentages work? Its literally like flipping a coin. You can flip a coin all day and there’s a chance of it always landing on one side even though its not likely to happen. If something has a 35% chance to succeed then yea you’re going to fail a lot lmao

this pretty much shows that you have no clue how math works. if you hate the system now you better quit cause the rates get lower and lower down to a point where its just 1%

If the chance is 35%, then the chance that i fail 14 times in a row is actually (1/3)^14 which is little bit more than 2%.

And this happened for me in 3 items in a row during 1 day.

So we can even say it’s (1/3)^35
(35 is amount of my attempts that i did)

U know what is chance of this happens?
1/105, so it’s less than 1%

Yeah, I’m good with math and percentages. I just don’t believe I’m such unlucky. Less than 1% chance of this happens and still it happens, and it’s not for the first time even.

Imagine doing a few dozen attempts and then saying something is statistically impossible.

Dude you can’t get clear statistics for anything unless your sample size is thousands - at the very least! That means you have to count every attempt though, not just the ones failed.

If you say “but other people have the same issue though” then there is just no saving you. It’s easy to see the vocal minority but your ignoring all the players who aren’t posting while having statistically good or average experiences.

Ive asked for data and actual honing % before but got no official messages.

There are lots of rumors about this system. The biggest is RTP.

The question still remains why are people failing these crazy percentages. I was failing 90s.

Rng is rng, but statistically it doesnt add up.

In a rng system if you have a 35% success rate, then lets just say 3 out of 10 times you should succeed. Or 30 out of 100. Or 300 out of 1000. Etc etc.

To fail that many times, in a row, on a 35%? It is obvious the system is bullshit.

Its not even that you’re “that unlucky” all of us went through the same thing. I think this might not be the game for you if you’re acting like this with the rates at 35%. What are you going to do whenever the highest you can get is 10% or even lower than that down the line. Just go ahead and pack it up man.

If you mean on a coin toss then that’s only true in theory. You see we do not live in a vacuum and coins are often old, dented, bent or dirty. Its actually extremely unlikely for a coin to land 50/50. Try it - take coin and flip it two or three hundred thousand times, I’ll wait.

Math is not quite right. With a 35% chance of success there is a 65% chance of failure. The probability of failing 14 times in a row is 0.65^14 = 0.002 or 0.2% assuming each roll is independent and the chances stay the same. But the chances increase after each failure so it’s not quite accurate. Eventually pity kicks in and it’s 100%.