DURRRRR MY SAMPLE SIZE OF T H R E E is SO ACCURATE
LMAO
Well, if I get results like this next week then the results will no longer be statistically significant. Thats a lot of thin gold bars and similar to what I was used to getting prior to this patch.
Opened 4 chests last week got 2x 1k bars, don’t remember how many 100g bar I got tho
I mean maybe your analyzis is correct, but there are some major flows. That one major flows come from the fact that the KR post you linked only have a sample size of 100 chests.
I mean it seems that you know your shit, so you know that 100 chests already provide a variance that give a, already large, “significience” interval. It’s not “that improbable” that the guy got 76 bar even tho the drop rate is 50% for example.
So your base of comparison is already lacking relevance. Now, that being said, I guarantee you that I have dropped 100g and 1000g in the 6 big chests I’ve opened in the 2 previous week. I’ve even got some this week opening medium chests. That plus the report of people in this thread, proove at the very least that the drop rate is not 0%. But … that’s kinda the only thing you can be sure of right there…
Again seems like you know your shit, means you know that 1 over a thousand is not “unrealistic” probability for an event to occurs. People have 9/7 stones (0.07%), I have tapped 2 +21 armor with 32 fused leapstone (0.09%).
So now, you’re point is that 0.25^9 is 0.0003% chance of occuring and indeed that’s litterally 1 over 300,000 (which is still probably 100 time higher than your chance to win the lottery btw). Some points here can explain why such an improbable event has occured:
- You’ve been extremely unlucky. Well let’s say we’re 300,000 players, unlucky that’s on you.
- The base drop rate you’ve been playing with is wrong. You’re assuming 75%, what if it’s 50% ? Litterally we’re talking 1 over a thousands here, 300 time higher than your base.
- The drop rate has been nerfed. Let’s say it was 50% and now it’s 25%, now there is 7% chance that your event occurs.
It seems that you are someone who have been educated regarding maths and probability, you know that probability always lies.
I agree i need more data points. Also, the chance that a chest drops multiple small bars can skew the analysis a little. If i get 6 small bars next week, the significance is no longer below 0.05 rate. That would be a very weird swing, but I guess it could happen if the odds table for bars give 0 bars vs like say a 5% chance of 2-5 bars. The true drop rate is unknown because it is not published. The 76 our of 100 dropped in korea could have been a lucky roll for that data set as well. The analysis does account for this. You can go to the z table and type in numbers and see how it would change. I have been very unlucky to get no extra gold bars period for 3 weeks straight. This is highly unlikely if the korean data from before the patch is accurate.
A population of 9 … how to tell if someone never taken a stats class… lmao
I dont know but on the reset day i got the 10k bar, 2x 1k bar and 3x 100 bar so…
Its been 3 weeks, 9 is the most data I could collect so far.
Machine A gives red marbles 80% of the time and 20% of the time blue marbles
Machine B gives blue marbles 80% of the time and red marbles the other 20% of the time
Both machines are unlabled
Would it take you longer than 9 marbles drawn to figure it out?
In this case you get to draw 100 marbles from one machine and 9 from the other. Im pretty sure you could figure it out.
Showing ONE result that’s far from standard deviation does not mean that the underlying probability changed. To actually prove that Una chests are “nerfed”, you’d need to prove that there’re more than 0.00038% of such events happened, which means about more than 38 occurrences in a pool of 100000.
If I show this, what would be your conclusion? An extreme outline event happened, OR stone cutting percentage nerfed omg pls stop shilling for AGS?
Which of the following is more likely:
A. You being a lucklet
B. The same thing happening to everybody but you are the only one complaining
Yeah that doesn’t work you can’t use a sample of 9… your point is irrelevant
First week, can`t remember 
Second week i got 10k bar, 1k bar and 4x 100 bar + usual gold, from opening 3 big boxes.
This week i got nothing, only the gold.
Okay this week i got like 2.5k when last week it was almost 20k 
i bought 3 chests and all 3 combined was 3,984 gold so from each big chest i got 1,328… i feel like it’s actually nerfed. what are the odds that each chest to give the exact amount? 1328 each x3 ? pretty sneaky nerf to una gold.
Thats about the correct number. 1250 is the expected gold amount (The chests avgs around 2.5 per token spent).
i could swear this is way lower than i used to get before.
Nope, its always been an expected value of about 2.5-3.0 gold per una token since launch.
80 Bag = ~200-240 Flat Gold with a small chance for 100g Bars
200 Bag = ~500-600 Flat Gold with a small chance for 100g Bars and a Tiny chance for 1000g bars.
500 Bag = ~1250-1500 Flat Gold with a small chance for 100g Bars, a Tiny chance for 1000g bars and a rare chance for the chunky 10k bars.
People have stated that with the smaller bags you have a very SLIGHTLY better chance of getting the smaller bars then the 500 chest but you remove all possibility of getting the 10k bar.
I have to see if I can hunt down an old chart people used to get a decent sample size but It was found that the more consistent best gold gains were from the 200 small chest (had the highest avg gold return) and the 500 large chest has the worse avg return rate unless you pop the big chungus with the 80 bag just being “middle of the road”
I got my first ever Legendary Gold Bar AFTER the change with Una’s Coins. So your whole thread is invalid.
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I’ll just add my bit to it:
I have never gotten a 10k gold bar
I have seen 1 1k gold bar
This has been since I started playing in April, there has been no change in my drops and I generally see just over 1.2k per box.
Those that were getting massive amounts of gold, you were getting lucky. What you are now experiencing is what most of us have been experiencing throughout the game with Una boxes. How about you be glad you had that run of luck instead of complaining because you had no idea what the norm is and crying nerf?
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9 chests is statistically irrelevant and could happen entirely by random chance you’ve proven nothing…not saying it did or did not change just that your info and waiting 2 more weeks proves nothing you clearly don’t know how stats work. The fact that you are calling people dumb makes me feel free to not be nice to you.
Some light reading for you: Statistical significance - Wikipedia
Your p value isn’t sufficient your results are anecdotal and therefore prove nothing. If you wanted this to be relevant you’d likely need to do this over more like 100 weeks to prove anything and have real data based on the previous data you’re referencing not such an insignificant 9 chest sample size. Your 75% is reading the data wrong your 5% isn’t correct and even if it was there would still be a 5% chance you still are just wrong.
TLDR: Stay in school kids!