On the honing % rates - quick note

Hey all,

Just a bit of math as I see people misunderstanding how chance and odds work.

Some players here say that they failed (with screenshots and proof) 80% roll, few times in a row, and other people responding that ‘this is normal, every time you try you have 20% to fail, it doesn’t reset on each try’ - and as much as this is true, you need to remember that failing 80% roll even 3 times in a row has 0,8% chance of occurring.

If someone fails it 4 times in a row, the chance of that occurring goes to 0,16%.

Of course I don’t assume nor say that SG is rigging honing rates, but you need to remember that probability of failing enhancements at 70%+ few times in a row is extremely low - and not 30% even if you do it 10 times.

Right but if the honing rates were in fact rigged or skewed to the degree people are claiming lately, there’d probably be a lot more fuss on the forums than there already is. I also assume AGS and Smilegate have access to the actual total honing stats and thus have the data to determine if something is wrong with honing.

I don’t accuse SG or assume the rates are rigged, I’m just making sure people understand how odds and probability work, as there is a lot of misinformation here on the forum.

I saw people claiming that even if you fail 20 times in a row on 60%, this is due to the fact that each time you have 40% of failure, and thats it - but they don’t understand that probability of failing that many times in a row on 40% failure is 0.000001%

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No joke, I failed two 90s then a 90 and the subsequent 97, then another 90 in one honing session