Within 10 minutes of each other, I hit TWO PITY HONES at +7. Each starting at 80% honing chance. EVEN IF honing chance wasn’t going UP as you accumulate artisan energy, this is statistically IMPOSSIBLE.

Aka the chances of this happening are 0.20.2020.20.20.202*0.2 = 0.00000256 which means the chance that you fail an 80% hone 8 times in a row happens to be 0.000256% (or 0.16% failing 4 times in a row at 80% hones per item).

Are you fudging probabilities on purpose or just can’t program them right? I got used to not being able to hone almost nothing past +15… but when I’m pity honing +7s on an alt, I’m ready to go bananas

Each tap, you had a 20% chance to fail. I don’t see that as being impossible. Does it suck, sure, but it’s not impossible. I’ve also had bad since I started playing the game. I’ve also one-tapped on a few occasions. I’ve had good and bad experiences on the last few taps to reach a new tier milestone as well. It’s RNG. They’re most likely not messing with numbers behind the scene.

T1 character I have with stronghold buff, rank up mats and books, going +14 to +15 on weapon
90% chance and going up
failed every single attempt (3) fully juiced till hitting pity

having statistically bad luck is bound to happen too someone. thats how it works

someone out here is pitying every single piece of gear, while someone else has 1 tapped there way to full +25. it all averages out, the rest of us have had very average luck.

everytime i see these post yall remind me that education in the west needs a revamp because theirs no way grown adults see something isnt 100% and go “this is illogical non sense that i didnt get something that ISNT 100%”

no actually you cant so aslong as its rng. because thats what rng means

people have asked that they “add a system that u just bring a bunch of mats and it upgrades 100%” but that system already exists, its the artisan energy one.

you have both a rng system and a 100% upgrade system rolled into one. if this isnt fun then this probably isnt the game for you

These threads always bring out the possibility andies. Lots of things are possible. It’s possible to fail a 99.9% success rate a googleplex times in a row. It’s possible for Schrodinger’s cat to quantum tunnel through a wall. Talking about possibilities is meaningless.

Things that happen 4-5 standard deviations from the norm on a regular basis is kind of weird.

Your math suggests that your previous rolls adjust, reflect, or have any weight on the next rolls which it doesn’t. Each roll has a new random set of numbers and a new set of possibilities.

This is just basic probability. Sometimes you get the short straw, and sometimes you don’t. While it is entirely possible that they are messing with numbers and stuff behind the scenes, the fact that this was done does not directly prove or even suggest that.

Your math and your saying that it makes that “impossible”, would also suggest that getting a 1 tap a couple of times in a row, rolling a perfect stone, or any other number of good RNG is also impossible, but it’s been done and there are videos of it happening. It just hasn’t happened for you.

This is just the nature of RNG and probability. It’s maddening, for sure, but it does not indicate foul play.