Potentially incorrect +4 Tripod transfer success rate

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1

So I started to transfer +4 tripod to my gears yesterday and was surprised by how many attempts it took to get one success. My first success took me 26 tries, second took about 15, 3rd took another 20+. And so far I had a total of 6 success which took me about 130 tries. This is no where near the 10% success rate.

Initially I thought it’s just me being unlucky, until my friends told me that he had similar success rate. And another guy in our guild decided to take a try just a couple hours ago, and guess what! He got his first success on the 33rd attempts!

Now I am not saying it’s impossible that all of us had bad luck, but the average success rate over 300+ transfers seem to be close to 5%, which is the exact number when not using Powder of Sage(which boost the success rate from 5% to 10%). And I have reason to believe that potentially there could be a bug and Powder of Sage is not doing anything at all.

I have no idea how everybody else is doing on transferring their +4 tripod, but if we all had similar success rate then Amazon should probably look into this.

2

Are you discovering RNG ?

4 Likes
3

kekw

4

This just seems suspicious, 10% success rate means 1 success out of 7 attempts on average. But my friends and I are getting nothing even close to that.

5

if its not 100% then its a gamble simple as that

6

10% literally means 10 out of 100 average, aka 1 out of 10.

Math much?

Make a sample size big enough and the success rate should lean towards that number. Small samples skew percentages.

7

idk how he got the idea of 1 in 7 being the success rate but about the sample size theres an issue where a sample size of 300 is already very large for a game like this, you technically want your results to converge to the shown percentage WAY sooner in these type of game systems so even if his data is not conclusive for whether the percentages are correct, even if they are there is most definitely an issue with the convergence as this will throw players off alot and will be perceived as very unfair
id go as far as to say that the percentages should be reliably reached in already 30 attempts to avoid issues, getting consistent results earlier is a much better approach than having long streaks

8

I’m actually more curious on how did you got so many +4 tripods.
You couldn’t get them from chaos dungeons so that leaves AH but that would cost fortune in gold and most importantly in pheons. Unless you took the number of attempts straight out of ur … or i’m missing something.

Also regarding easly getting some +4 tripods at least 1 on each piece of armor You can just save it in your tripodinventory and then transfer back on Your equiped armor.

9

A sample size of 300 is nothing. Very low.

Doesn’t matter that it is a videogame.

10

on the first day after valtan release i got 1 single +4 tripod. i transferred it and guess what? it was successful. its just RNG.

11

I can tell you I failed 36 30% tripod transfers in a row on my main. Sometimes you just roll terribly everytime.

12

Yeah, it can’t possibly be 30% for +3 because I’ve yet to meet someone who’s around that success rate.

I’m at like 5% for my last 50% attempts for +3 tripods. Just ridiculous.

Honing rates are about right, but stones and tripods…scam.