This is how people spend their time in the game thinking about nonsense
Never said it wouldn’t, again showing you lack of comprehension.
And yet you quote my 65% attributed to success in the very same message (all be it incorrectly)…
Refund your PhD my brother and spend that money on English reading classes, it will save you future embarrassment. I’m sure you are most intelligent and all your mistakes are simply due to other people misunderstanding your superiority.
The odds are 1:9 the probability of getting a hit in 10 attempts is 65%.
If you did an experiment where you took 10 hits 1,000,000 times, 650,000 of those would contain groups of ten that hit once (on avarage).
No one is arguing that if you took 1,000,000 hits, 100,000 of them wouldn’t be hits (on avarage), its just that does nothing to explain to the OP as to why hitting 10 times doesnt guarantee him a 100% hit. (Which was the aim of my explanation).
Nothing further to say on this. Good day sir.
Didnt read the wall of text knowing there is nothing worth reading.
Not sure why or what are you typing or trying to prove here when you have shown notonly once but twice that you lack deeper understanding of the subject matter. Like how are you not embarrassed yet?
Not at all, rather I’m quite entertained by your self-delusion.
Lol you have money it’s the secret thinking for successful refinement
I am just gonna quickly recap for you so you stop annoying me with your pings on this dead topic. This whole conversation started when I mentioned that the way to look at x% probability is that you just expect to try 1/x times to see a success on average.
Now, this statement had nothing to do with you nor was even for you. Yet, you just couldn’t help but say this is incorrect, saying I must be working at Burger king to come to this conclusion while also claiming you were a data scientist who was familiar with probability.
Being a busy person, I just asked you to google it up. Obviously you didn’t. Now, onto the point. You can prove that the expected number of trials to see a success is 1/p if p is the probability of success, which you replied that I must work at burger king to think this is so.
At 1st try, a successful outcome will occur with a probability p.
If 1st fails, a successful outcome can happen with a probablity (1-p)p.
If 2nd attempt fails, it will then occur on the third try with probability (1-p)(1-p)p…
The probability that nth trial is the first success is …
P(X=n) = (1-p)^n-1 * p
And this is called Bernoulli’s trial. You can look up wiki on Bernoulli’s trial and you will see exactly this. It is an elementary stuff in any probability textbook.
Now that I have shown that this honing we do is a Bernoulli trial… all we gotta do is look up the expected value of this geometric distribution.
Due to mathematical notation being hard to type it out, you can find the proof that E[X] = 1/p can be found here:
And here you are asking about whether the probability of failing n is (1-p)^n, and I never even disagreed with the statement. But I guess that’s all you know and that’s why you keep coming back to that stupid formula.
And also you said the probability of at least one of 10 tries being successful would be 65%. But you stop when you are successful. Also, you need to understand that the probability you are calculating here is retroactive in nature, and the chance of hitting the next honing is 10% REGARDLESS of how many failures in a row you have experienced so far.
Here is a really f*cking simple way to look at this.
Say you flipped coin 10 times and you got tail tail tail tail … and all tail.
Now you gotta flip a coin one more time. What is the chance that you get a tail?
It is a freaking 50 percent still. If for some reason you thought because you flipped coin 10 times already and got all tail, you think the probability of getting the 11th tail is 0.5^11, you are getting it wrong.
The chance of getting all 11 flips to be tail would be 0.5^11 but the next flip will always be 0.5 regardless of the past results.
Edit: some typos
For me I’ve started to think about honing as something I just feed my resources too without any expected outcome.
What do you mean? Expected outcome is a fail but it is always slowly going into the direction of a success.
I just meant it’s like throwing my resources into the garbage can. Don’t expect anything from it
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Well but you did get artisan energy which gives you the 100% success someday. You have the wrong mindset imo.
Every now and again people say to me, “no wonder you’re an accountant, your so good with numbers” and then I see shit like this that reminds me that I’m good at organizing numbers but I’m terrible at maths 
you sound like you’re explaining something very simple and logical but I can’t be the only one looking at this like “wtf” 
and hell, I’m man enough to admit that this stuff literally sails over my head.
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It’s an I don’t care mentality. Like how I don’t care what you think of it lol
Lol not once have i claimed the 11th flip would be 0.5^11. I think you have difficulties reading my friend.
I said incorrect because it was incorrect in releation to the initial post and did nothing the help remedy the confusion of the OP. That is all. You are dismissed.
you seem to have reading comprehension problem yourself.
op isn’t confused. op is just trying to see the glass half full rather than half empty and you went full ape on elementary math.
Elementary math is all that was needed to prove the probability wasn’t “FAKE”. Things should be explained in the most basic way possible. I am familiar with the formulas you used, there was simply no need for them in this discussion.
Anyway I already dismissed you sir. Good day.
Aliasgod is correct with his calculation. to keep it simple, let’s say you have 2 attempts to get a head when you flip a coin, what would be the chance you would land on head at least once??
you have 2 attempts, at a 50% chance. you can either get H H, H T, T H, T T. the probability is 75%. you get that from the equation he gave you.
1-(50%)^2
= 1 - (.5)^2
= 1 - .25
= .75 or 75%.
what YOU are confusing is: you flipped a coin heads. what is the chance you get another head? the answer is obviously 50% still.
this isn’t the same when someone says "you have 2 attempts to get a head when you flip a coin, what would be the chance you would land on head " .
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Lol… you clearly don’t understand what is going on. I never said his formula is incorrect.
Read the history.
The whole discussion started on what is the expected number of tries to see a success if say the probability is 10 percent.
I said you expect to try about 10 times on average or 1/p if p is the probability and this data scientist guy here said i must be working at burger king to come to such a conclusion (and that is because his understanding of probability is extremely limited and likely never actually took a probability course or failed it).
As for the formula, if you read carefully at my explanation on why the expected value of a bernoulli trial is 1/p then you will REALIZE that THE UNDERLYING ASSUMPTION IS THAT the probability of n consecutive failures is indeed (1-p)^n (FFS the proof starts from this formula in a sense or rather the geometric distribution contains this information). So again, i don’t understand why you are stating the obvious or maybe you don’t really understand the math.
As for the reason why I am saying (1-p)^n doesn’t matter here is because calculating the probability of such event happening is retroactive in nature (as in you are thinking about what has happened AFTER it has happened, and it doesn’t help you at all with the actual experience of honing since each time you tap, you are just going to see the probability p, and nothing else matters). We’re basically saying the same obvious shit, except I am saying the equation is meaningless and the way you should approach it is just look at the p, nothing else.
If you know that on average, a person will hone 1/p times to see a success, then it becomes stupidly easy to calculate that 1/p number and see if you are either lucky or unlucky based on this information. It’s a much better way for people to grasp probability on honing instead of calculating (1-p)^n each time to see what was the chance that this happened to them.
Maybe I am not the one who’s confused here and just maybe this is way over your head…
in which case, just move on man. Don’t necro the dead topic. The OP has left, and there’s a better place for y’all to learn the math. try wolfram.
Well. As you all can see, each person has their own way to see what this honing system as. So, the important things are,
-
Dont rush it when you are going to hone.
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You can try to mass up your mats + golds and hone like evry 1-2weeks.
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Set gearscore aim so you are not going to burn yourself out. (Ex, Im gonna hone my gearscore from 1445 to 1460 after 2-3weeks gathering my mats, after I reach 1460 I’ll stop)
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When Im about to hone, I’m gonna set my mind that every tap, its either success or fail, its always 50% probability. (And it worked when I honed my gearscore to 1445, sometime I got 3-4 taps success, 1-2 times I got like 8-9 taps success, there was one time 1 tap success)
So here I am just trying to help ppls especially newcomers, to have positive clear mindset when you are going to hone. It will help a lot to avoid stress.
Not how it went at all, keep dreaming.
And the proof why it does matter here is it was used to demonstrate 10 taps at 10% isn’t 100%.